Earlier in 2024, large Brazilian cities like Brasília and São Paulo were shrouded in visible layers of smoke and air pollution for days on end. On top of high temperatures, wildfires and energy-related emissions led to a state of emergency for millions nationwide. In Brazil and beyond, the climate crisis is an increasingly urgent and present problem that demands immediate action. Substantially reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across all sectors is crucial to achieving this, and Brazil has a significant role to play in the race to save the climate.

In 2025, Brazil will host UNFCCC‘s COP30 Belém, an annual gathering of global leaders convening to address environmental challenges and progress since the Paris Agreement. This event, alongside Brazil’s G20 Presidency in 2024, presents a unique opportunity for the country to strengthen its work in energy decarbonization, particularly within the transport sector.

To seize this spotlight, Brazil’s decision-makers must ramp up their efforts to create an agenda focused on equitable, low-emission mobility. In this arena, organizations like ITDP and our regional partners are committed to making transport electrification a fundamental piece of Brazil’s leadership on the world stage.

The Moment for Electrification

Brazil has committed to an absolute net GHG emissions target of 1.20 gigatonnes of CO2e by 2030, representing a 53% reduction compared to 2005. Transport emissions play a significant role as they are responsible for 44% of Brazil’s total energy sector emissions, which have quintupled in the last five decades.

With the urgent need to address this, the electrification of public transport fleets has recently been made a national priority with increased federal funding and subsidies. Brazil’s 2023 New Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) development plan has allocated 10 billion reais (over USD $1.7 billion) to finance the acquisition of 2,296 electric buses, or e-buses, across 61 cities and seven states.

The e-bus industry is growing rapidly in Brazil, with many regional manufacturers producing vehicles to meet PAC specifications. Promising federal initiatives like the Ecological Transition Plan and New Industry Brazil Program aim to invest the equivalent of USD $60 billion by 2026 into electric and sustainable transport development.

The industrial MOVER Program was also created to expand the electrification of heavy-duty vehicles with subsidies and strategic investments into automobiles, trucks, and buses. Recent studies suggest Brazil could electrify up to 13,000 buses by 2030, positioning it as a leader in Latin America’s e-bus market.

Learning from Local and National Data

In support of decarbonizing the country’s bus fleets, the team at ITDP Brazil has been conducting in-depth data analyses in collaboration with local and national government agencies. Using data from GPS, GTFS, vehicle fleets, topologies, and other parameters, researchers are working to estimate the emissions abatement potential of various electrification scenarios.

At the country level, ITDP Brazil and partners have led a project with the Ministry of Cities to identify the number of traditional buses that could be rapidly replaced with e-buses, with considerations for energy demand and battery consumption, and without a significant increase in the number of vehicles. This analysis covered the country’s 21 largest metropolitan regions and factored in the potential for more national investment in upcoming years.

In total, 15 bus systems were analyzed, representing over 10% of the total number of urban buses in Brazil. This data will help the Ministry of Cities and the government refine its framework for a mobility strategy that boosts infrastructure and public transport growth. Beyond the national assessments, ITDP Brazil has also been collaborating with cities like Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte to accelerate electrification within local contexts. In the case of Rio de Janeiro, the team identified multiple bus lines primed for electrification that maximize accessibility and economic impacts while minimizing upfront costs.

After analyzing 29 bus lines in the Western and Central areas of the city, the findings identified that all of them were primed for electrification. While these lines represent just a fraction (7%) of Rio de Janeiro’s buses, the transition could benefit up to 700,000 nearby residents, including many low-income communities.

In Belo Horizonte, Brazil’s sixth-largest city, the city selected several bus lines for electrification as part of a plan to purchase 100 electric buses under the PAC program. To evaluate these lines’ operations, topographical issues, and sites for bus depots, ITDP Brazil helped the city develop strategies for implementation and estimate budgets. With the full electrification of the 12 bus lines in the assessment, 380,000 residents (or 16% of the city’s population) — including over 123,000 Black residents — would benefit from expanded e-bus access.

In this proposal, transport electrification would also provide access to more than 340,000 formal job opportunities, potentially comprising 47% of all formal economy jobs in the city. This work in Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte shows the potential economic, social, and emissions impacts of bus electrification at city—and region-wide levels.

Towards Progress

This work offers valuable insights into the barriers and opportunities for electric mobility across Brazil. Key lessons include the need to consider local topography and infrastructure, the benefits of integrating e-bus lines, and the critical role of data in making informed planning decisions. Additionally, improving regulations to enhance data availability and transparency is crucial to robust and actionable electrification policies. Notable gaps in knowledge also emerged from this work, including limited information on the country’s energy supply systems, which is crucial for future electrification plans.

Many cities lack a clear understanding of organizing local infrastructure to charge e-buses and face challenges in developing operational plans. There is significant potential to expand technical expertise and capacity in these areas to support Brazil’s energy transition. This is not about simply replacing vehicles and buses; it involves building new infrastructure along with regulatory frameworks and partnerships across sectors. ITDP Brazil, for our part, continues to be positioned at the center of this effort in many cities, connecting stakeholders within the electrification ecosystem.

The team continues to identify systemic bottlenecks and areas for change to equip cities with the expertise to procure and deploy more e-buses with existing funds. The complexities and progress we are witnessing at this juncture for electrification in Brazil present the country with a strategic opportunity. Public and private sector leaders have a chance to reimagine public transport—particularly bus systems—as the backbone of sustainable, equitable cities through stronger partnerships and collective action.

“Partnerships are extremely important for the federal government because in a country of continental scale, it is crucial to have organizations like ITDP Brazil that are more engaged with cities,” said Marcos Daniel, the Director of the National Secretary of Urban Mobility at the Ministry of Cities. “Acting as partners, we can generate data and produce information to support the federal government in formulating and reformulating public policies aimed at the energy transition towards low-carbon urban mobility.”

 As we look ahead to COP30, national and international leaders must prioritize more financing mechanisms, data collection, and capacity-building to leverage opportunities for larger-scale transport electrification in Brazil and beyond. Countries can reach their urgent emissions reduction goals only through more transit-focused urban development, coupled with low-emission transport.